Chad

Rainfall performance has been highly irregular across Chad, characterized by severe precipitation deficits and high temperatures at the start of the 2026 agricultural season in May, followed by near-average conditions in June, and a return to below-average rainfall and elevated temperatures over the past month. Consequently, both cropland and rangeland biomass conditions remain below-average across most parts of the country. At the national level, approximately 45% of the active crop area and more than 30% of the active rangeland area are affected by a negative greenness anomaly. The most severely impacted areas include the Sudanian regions of Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Tandjilé, Mayo-Kebbi Ouest, Mandoul, and Mayo-Kebbi Est, alongside the Sahelian regions of Ouaddaï, Batha and Sila. Compounding these environmental stressors, persistent insecurity remains a primary driver of food insecurity; according to FEWS NET (July 2026), escalating Boko Haram attacks in Lac Province and clashes surrounding refugee disarmament and water access in eastern provinces like Wadi Fira and Ouaddaï continue to create a climate of fear that drives population displacement and severely disrupts local livelihoods. Looking ahead, the Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for September 2026 predicts near-average conditions nationwide, with the exception of the southern and southeastern regions, which are expected to face drier-than-average conditions.