Algeria

In Algeria, harvest of winter cereals is expected to start in mid-June and prospects are mixed: very poor in the west (from Tlemcen to Chlef and Relizane and western half of Tiaret) as a result of a very dry autumn and winter and some parts of the centre south (Bordj Bou Arrer, part of Medea) due to rainfall deficit in February March; average to above average in parts of the centre (Tissemlit, Setif) and the northeast (Guelma, Skikda, El Tarf) which benefitted from better rainfall. Overall, wheat and barley yields at country level are expected to be close to average, the poor harvest in the west being compensated by better output in the east. At end May, i.e. two weeks before the start of harvest, wheat and barley yields were forecast at +5% and +9% above their five year mean respectively, according to the last JRC MARS bulletin. However, other models forecast an output at -20 or -30% (P. Szabo, JRC forecast based on machine learning models, personal communication).