Somalia

The 2026 Gu season in Somalia has so far been characterized by a delayed onset and erratic rainfall distribution, with most rainfall concentrated within a short period in late April and early May. Vegetation conditions observed in late June indicate that this uneven rainfall pattern has already adversely affected both crop development and rangeland conditions across much of the country. As a result, there is a high likelihood of below-average Gu production. A poor 2026 Gu harvest would compound the severe impacts of the 2025 Deyr drought, during which large parts of the country experienced crop failure or significantly below-average yields, alongside reduced livestock production. According to FEWSNET, there is a credible risk of famine in parts of Bay Region due to the delayed onset and poor performance of the 2026 Gu rains following consecutive drought seasons. At the same time, Somalia remains highly dependent on imported food and fuel from the Gulf region, leaving it vulnerable to regional supply disruptions and price shocks. The food insecurity caseloads remain high in the country, with 6 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2026, including 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).