Mozambique

The harvest of cereal crops will conclude in June and regional performance will vary due to flooding and dry spells that triggered widespread crop failures during critical stages of plant development. According to OCHA, "nationwide, more than 518,000 hectares of cultivated land were affected, including 312,000 hectares destroyed, with the most severe impacts recorded in Gaza, Maputo, and Sofala provinces where crop losses exceeded 50% in some areas". Moreover, conflict and displacement in the north are keeping yields below average by restricting access to farmlands, except in less-affected areas where the harvest is improving (FEWS NET (May 2026)). The JRC ASAP forecast warnings point to a moderate probability of drier-than-normal conditions across southern parts of the country for the upcoming 2026–2027 season. These forecasts are generally in line with expectations linked to the upcoming El Nino but will need to be monitored closely over the next months.