Sudan

Most of Sudan is typically in the dry season in April and the main cropping season will start in July. As typical for the dry season there is very limited vegetation greenness. Since the onset of the conflict, even generally favorable agro-climatic conditions in recent seasons have not translated into expanded planting areas or higher yields. This is largely due to severe access constraints and input shortages caused by the ongoing conflict. For instance, a recent analysis by the University of Yale shows that for communities abandoned in 2024 North of El Fasher, greening as seen by satellite imagery can be due to regrowth of vegetation inside villages as well as by abandoned rangelands. In addition, seasonal weather forecasts indicate a high likeliness of drier than average conditions in the second half of 2026 driven by an upcoming El Nino. This is confirmed by a large amount of ASAP seasonal forecast warnings for the upcoming season for most agricultural and pastoral areas in the country. After more than three years of conflict Sudan is one of the gravest food crises globally, with famine confirmed in September 2025 in El Fasher town (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) and risk of famine in other 20 areas. An increased frequency of drone strikes on markets, hospitals and other high population density areas has been reported since December 2025 further compounding the situation. According to the IPC valid analysis for the projection period February to May 2026, 19.1 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity at IPC Phase 3 or higher (Crisis or worse). This includes approximately 146,000 in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), 4.9 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 14 million in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).