At the end of the main season, preliminary forecasts place the 2025 cereal production at 29.8 million tonnes, slightly above the 5-year average (
FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation, November 2025). Despite the good national level output, reduced yields are expected in the Middle Belt States, where crop conditions were poor throughout the agricultural season. Moreover, according to
FEWSNET (October 2025), “In northern Nigeria, conflict continues to drive displacement, disrupt livelihood and market activities, and constrain access to income and farmland”. Widespread flooding in 2025 resulted in localized crop losses, with over 60,000 ha of farmland devastated (
ECHO Daily Flash (17/10)).