Nigeria

Rainfall in the last month across the country has been mixed; average in the northeastern, above-average in the east-central, below-average in the northwestern, the west-central and the southeastern parts. Below-average vegetation conditions are observed across the Middle States (Niger, Kaduna, Adamawa, Nassarawa, Taraba, Plateau, Kwara, Benue, FCT Abuja, Kogi), where ca. 50%-85% of active crop area is affected by a greeness anomaly. In the north of the country, planting of coarse grains is underway, and a delay of the main season is observed. Below-average cumulative rainfall in the last month (ca.30%-40% below) in some parts of the north, e.g in Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara states has probably resulted in this delay. Rangelands are similarly poor across most parts of the country, as at the national level almost 50% of active rangeland area is affected by a greenness anomaly. According to WFP Nigeria (Situation Report No.84), “2025 remains a challenging year for food security as the security situation is characterized by heightened sporadic attacks, killings, and abduction of civilians in the major food-producing areas, while illegal checkpoints and attacks along the main supply routes threaten humanitarian access and the functioning of markets across the northeast and northwest”. According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis (March 2025), more than 30.6 million people (almost 15% of the population analyzed) are projected to be in critical acute food insecurity state (Phase 3 or above) for the period of June-August 2025. The Copernicus C3S Multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for the July-August 2025 period points to drier-than-average conditions in the southern and central parts of the country and wetter-than-average conditions in the north.