Kenya

Vegetation conditions in the north/eastern parts of Kenya deteriorated further in August, reflecting a rapid deterioration of pastoral vegetation in the ASALs. This is due to cumulative effects of below-average rainfall since late May and throughout June and July as well as above average temperatures. In the unimodal cropping zones, below-average rainfall slowed crop development and reduced soil moisture availability during critical crop growth stages causing clearly below average crop production expectations both in Western Kenya and in the Rift Valley counties, Kenya's main bread basket. Looking ahead, forecasts of a strong El Niño for the upcoming short rains season point to above average rainfall. It is important however to bear in mind that high intensity rainfall will not be immediately beneficial to drought affected crop areas and that there is a high risk of adverse impacts including increased risk of flooding. These conditions could further affect agricultural production, disrupt livelihoods, and complicate recovery efforts in areas already impacted by the current dry spell.