Kenya

At end of harvest time in the unimodal regions, crop production prospects in the Western and Rift Valley areas are generally favorable, supported by conducive agro-climatic conditions throughout the season. In contrast, the bimodal areas, where the second-season crops began in October, are experiencing the effects of moisture deficits. Rainfall has remained below the long-term average in most of these regions, further compounded by a delayed onset of the season. This follows an already below-average long rains harvest; for example, NDMA reports indicate that maize production in Kitui was about 40 percent below average, while in Makueni, overall yields were constrained by erratic rainfall patterns. Pasture conditions in ASAL counties continue to deteriorate, with northeastern and coastal rangelands such as Wajir and Mandera exhibiting notably poor vegetation, driven by hotter-than-average temperatures and below-average rainfall. Forecasts of drier-than-normal rains in December 2025 are expected to place additional pressure on crop and livestock production in these areas. According to IPC, food security conditions are projected to worsen between October 2025 and January 2026. Around 2.1 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity at IPC Phase 3 or higher (Crisis or worse). This includes approximately 160,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 2 million in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The expected decline is largely attributed to forecasted below-average rainfall, which is likely to drive up staple food prices and intensify conflicts over resource management.